This year endorsed with nine election across India,Elections scheduled in Karnataka 05 May, MP state Dec 12, Delhi state to go for assembly polls Dec 17,2013,Rajasthan Dec 31,Chattisgarh,Orissa and General election to follow to create round the year employment of its kind with natural flow of publicity funds and transportation expense could bring in some unorganized employment for this special purpose.
"We
reiterate our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 6.4 per cent. The
key to an improvement in activity is a pickup in the investment cycle,"
it said in a report.
It
said higher government capex coupled with falling rates and policy
reforms to ease bottlenecks and manufacturing export growth will drive
investments during the ongoing fiscal.
On
Thursday, the UN pegged the calender 2013 growth at 6.4 per cent, while
the ADB last projected that the domestic economy would reach 6 per cent
in the current fiscal.
In
the budget, the government had pegged growth at between 6.1 and 6.7 per
cent. Rating agency Crisil had lowered its FY14 growth estimate to 6
per cent from the earlier 6.4 per cent earlier this week.
Official
estimates suggest the economy might have expanded 5 per cent in the
recently concluded fiscal, the lowest in ten years.
"The
year before the elections is generally associated with increased
government spending. Indeed, government spending (as a percentage of
GDP) has increased the year before the elections, in each of the last
four general elections," it said.
While
stating this also increased the possibility of a higher fiscal deficit,
it called it a "positive stimulus to the economy."
Crisil
had cast doubts whether the government will be able to achieve its
stated objective of reigning-in fiscal deficit at 4.8 per cent.
Among
other reasons cited include the expected lowering of interest rates by
the RBI besides a drive on the policy front to expedite projects.
"Ongoing
policy reforms to de-bottleneck infrastructure and other investments,
particularly, the Cabinet Committee on Investments can help," the
Goldman Sachs report said.
Additionally
other factors like the improvement in the global economic climate will
also act as a "tailwind," Goldman said. The report pointed out to data
displaying some "greenshoots" like that on the index of industrial
production, exports, and non-food credit.
No comments:
Post a Comment