September export grows at 11%

Narrowing trade deficit during April-September 2013-14 at US$80bn from US$91bn in April-September 2012-13 is inspiring on expanding exports trajectory and squeezing imports scenario. The export/import ratio is expected to remain steady and favourable in the coming months too on pick up in exports scenario vis-à-vis revival of demand in advanced economies. Rupee is expected to recover further from its current level and consolidate at around 60/US$ by end Dec 2013. The appreciation and consolidation of rupee by Dec’13 will be driven by many factors such as improving capital flows, improving export/import ratio and overall current account balance.

India’s exports for the month of September 2013 stands at USD 27.67 billion with a (Y-O-Y) increase of 11.15% as compared to USD 26.14 billion in  August 2013 with a (Y-O-Y) growth of 12.9%. During September 2013, the imports were USD 34.43 billion with a (Y-O-Y) growth of around (-) 18.10 % as compared to USD 37.05 billion in August 2013 with a (Y-O-Y) growth of (-) 0.7%. The balance of trade stands at around USD (-) 6.76 billion during September 2013 as compared to USD (-) 10.92 billion during August 2013.

  Value of foreign trade                                                    USD billion

Period	August	September	Apr-Sep
Exports
FY 14	26.14	27.67	152.10
Growth (%)	12.97	11.15	5.14
Imports
FY 14	37.05	34.43	232.23
Growth (%)	(-)0.68	(-) 18.10	(-) 1.80
Trade balance
FY 14	(-)10.92	(-) 6.76	(-) 80.12

 Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt of India

The cumulative figure for the period of April-September FY2014 shows exports at USD 152.10 billion as compared to USD 144.67 billion in April- September FY2013 with a growth of 5.14%; while the cumulative imports for April-September FY2014 stands at USD 232.23 billion as compared to USD 236.49 billion in April-September FY2013 with a growth of (-) 1.80%. The cumulative figure for the balance of trade for the period of April-September FY2014 stands at USD (-) 80.12 billion as compared to USD (-) 91.81 billion in April-September FY2013.

Trend in Exports and Imports                                                                                               (%)

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt of India

Warm regards,

Dr. S P Sharma

Chief Economist