BJP likely to gain 200 plus seats in Lok Sabha

11052014

 

BJP likely to gain 200 plus seats in Lok Sabha

Loss to Congress will be gain to BJP

ASHOK B SHARMA*

Nation eagerly awaits the conclusion of the final phase of the polls on May 12 and thereafter the announcement of the results four days later. Already the writing on the wall is clear – people want change. Picking up the thread several opinion polls have begun speculating the numbers.

The Congress party, facing anti-incumbency due to allegations of corruption, mal-administration and not being able to check rising prices and unemployment, is likely to reduce its strength. By how much is the real question? Will the loss to the INC mean gain for BJP?

In 2009 polls, the Congress gaining 206 seats could lead the UPA-II coalition in the 543-member house. Among states, its major support base was from Andhra Pradesh where it won 33 out of 42 seats. In 2004 polls also, the Congress won 29 seats that pushed the party to get 145 seats and lead the UPA coalition. This was possible due to the popularity of the then Chief Minister YS Rajashekhara Reddy

But unfortunately, the party is unlikely to repeat its victory card this time in Andhra Pradesh. The tragic death of YSR Reddy came as a setback to the Congress. The party refused to pass on the mantle to his son Jagan who broke away and formed the YSR Congress. The subsequent Congress leadership in the state, riddled with factionalism, could not live up to the expectations of the people. Added to this the bifurcation of the state engineered by UPA-II has left the people of Seemandhra region unhappy. In Seemandhra region which has 25 seats, the Congress is likely to fare miserably. In this region TDP which has alliance with BJP and also the YSR Congress stand to gain. In Telangana, which has 17 seats, the TRS is likely to gain at the expenses of the Congress.

Next to undivided Andhra Pradesh, Congress garnered 21 seats in UP followed by 20 in Rajasthan in 2009 polls. These scores were impressive as compared to 2004 polls when the Congress secured 9 seats in UP and 4 seats in Rajasthan. Other states were the Congress scored in double digits in 2009 were Maharashtra (17), Kerala (13) and Madhya Pradesh (12). But this magic is unlikely to be repeated at 2014 polls. In UP the BJP has put up an aggressive campaign to gain maximum seats out of the total 80 in the state. In Rajasthan, recently the BJP’s Vasundhara Raje took over as Chief Minister routing Congress and gaining two-third majority. Similarly, MP voted back the BJP Chief Minister Shivraj Chauhan to power and in Maharashtra where Congress is the ruling party is facing anti-incumbency factor.

In this situation it seems likely that the Congress is likely to lose around 100 out 206 seats it had gained in the 2009 general elections.

The moot question is which party is likely to gain at the expense of the Congress? The general mood of the people is for a stable national alternative. The BJP has come clear by forming a coalition of parties called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and projecting the Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate with an development agenda.

The BJP has the record of winning 182 seats on its own in 1999 polls that bounced back Atal Bihari Vajpayee as prime minister of NDA coalition. The Congress tally stood at 114, after losing 23 seats it had won in 1998.

States like UP with a total of 80 seats, Maharashtra with a total of 48 seats and Bihar with a total of 40 seats are crucial for BJP if it intends to cross the barriers of 200 in Lok Sabha. BJP has the record of gaining 50 plus seats from in UP in three consecutive polls in 1991, 1996 and 1998 riding on Ram Mandir and Hindutva wave, highest being 57 in 1998. But in 1999 when the party won a maximum of 182 seats in Lok Sabha, its count from UP declined to 29.

However, in 2014 polls, the BJP has set up candidates on basis of its social engineering The BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s aggressive campaign and his project of development agenda seem to have gone well with the people and the party is expected to be a front runner with good number of seats.

In Bihar, the BJP which is competing with Lalu Yadav’s RJD is expected to get about 20 seats. In Maharashtra where the Congress-NCP alliance is likely to shrink to 15 seats, the BJP and its alliance partners will be the ultimate gainers.   

Other major gains for BJP can come from Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, besides gains from other parts of the country. In all likelihood, it seems that BJP is likely to gain 200 plus seats in the overall tally in the Lok Sabha. The Congress tally is likely to be around 100. The loss to the Congress will be gain for BJP.

 

(*The writer is a senior journalist on strategic and policy issues. He is former Agriculture Editor of the Financial Express)

Ashok B Sharma

To nksagar@rediffmail.comMe

 

 

 Today at 4:57 PM

Dear Sagar,

 

As per our discussions at the recent book launch ceremony of the Railways, I am send my Article for posting on your Website. My PHOTO is attached herewith.

 

-ASHOK B SHARMA-

Senior journalist on policy and strategic issues

former Agriculture Editor, Financial Express